Are Washington State Voters Boycotting the August Primary?

It's no secret many voters don't get excited about primary elections, but as of last count (which was Friday August 2nd) voters may be outright avoiding this primary.  This is a Presidential election year and that usually translates to more voter participation.  Along with that, Washingtonians will decide their next Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and more executive State offices.

The Presidential and State primaries are done at different times (March and August respectively) as the Presidential election is the only Federal race in the United States and carries it's own criteria based state by state results.  As I said earlier, primaries almost always have lower voter turnout than the general election, but this year's numbers are trending in the wrong direction.

Some Comparative History

The Presidential primary return results from 2020 were just under fifty percent.  The State primary saw a voter return rate of over fifty-four percent.

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The average voter return for the last three Presidential Primaries (2020, 2016, and 2008 as Washington State cancelled the 2012 primary) was around forty-two percent.  The average voter return for the last three State Primaries (2020, 2016, and 20120) was just under forty-three percent.  2024 is not shaping up that way with four days to go.

Voter Turnout So Far is Anemic

In this year's Presidential Primary ballot returns were slightly north of thirty-five percent.  It's true that many voters don't like declaring their party preference on the outside of the envelope, but that didn't stop them in 2020 when they had to do the same thing.  That can't be the sole reason for the sharp decline.  The fact it became a two horse race right around the time we voted more likely discouraged voters than the need to check the box.

That doesn't explain this precipitous drop in the State primary.  These are the numbers as of Friday August 2nd, four days before the primary.

You don't need to adjust your eyeballs, you're really seeing under sixteen percent return.  That number will rise, but how much is the question.  Mail in ballots must be postmarked by August 6th, so any ballots mailed today are out.  Drop box rates do tend to increase in the last few days leading to the election, but in order to reach the average primary turnout, roughly 1.3 million ballots need to be received.  That's nearly double the current turnout.

Why Aren't People Voting?

In a year where the Gubernatorial election maybe the most important in decades, I don't have an answer.  I would argue the primary is more important that the general election in some ways.  You get to determine who goes to the general election with your vote, otherwise you accept who others choose for you.  Even if your candidate doesn't make it out of the primary you still exercised your right to participate in the process.

There is also a certain amount of distrust in the system.  Some believe a number of voting laws in place make it easy to commit voter fraud.  That debate can be discussed at another time as opinions vary as to the extent of voter fraud, if it takes place at all.

Still others don't believe their vote matters, which is the hardest sentiment to combat.  For centuries the right to vote in this country has been fought for by groups that were originally left out of having that voice.  It is your right to exercise to determine your government representation from the local to the federal level.

It will be interesting to see the final number from this primary and if it impact the general election.  In case you're wondering, the last three general elections in a Presidential year in Washington State averaged over Eighty-One percent voter return.