Politics is an interesting beast.  It has been referred to as 'a combat sport', 'human chess', and 'the dirtiest of businesses'.  One thing it rarely is... boring.  As November approaches many political observers prepare for the possibility of an "October Surprise".

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It's a term (as the name implies) that describes something(s) that can have a major impact on a race within the final month of the election cycle.  It's believed the term was coined by William J. Casey in 1980 when he was Ronald Reagan's campaign manager.  Casey supposedly used the term when relaying a fear regarding that year's election.

The reality is October surprises happened long before 1980, they just weren't described that way.  Some of the more famous ones were:

  • In 1840, supporters of President Martin Van Buren accused the Whig Party of paying Pennsylvanians to go to New York and vote there.
  • In 1880, a letter said to be written by Republican candidate James Garfield regarding Chinese labor was distributed by Democrats 12 days before the election.  The letter was proved to be a forgery.
  • In 2016, FBI Director James B. Comey reopens the investigation into Democrat Candidate Hillary Clinton's email server.

Those are just a few examples.  The one thing they all have in common is the surprise was dropped by an outside entity, not the candidate themself.

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Rep. Newhouse X
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Jerrod Sessler is running to unseat incumbent 4th District Congressman Dan Newhouse for the second time.  In 2022 Sessler finished in 4th place in the primary in a crowded field of Republicans and one Democrat. This year, in a less crowded field, Sessler won the primary and advanced to face Newhouse in next month's general election.  It's the third time Newhouse has faced a fellow Republican for the seat.

Sessler's October Surprises

The first one dropped last week in a series of commercials run by Dan Newhouse.  They use statements Sessler made on video detailing his feelings on meat and dairy products.  I don't need to explain the controversial nature of the comments in a district with a massive dairy producer in Darigold and more ranchers than you can shake a stick at. You can view them all here.

The second surprise is one he may well have brought on himself.  In an interview with the Yakima Herald-Republic, Sessler expressed his thoughts on those of the Muslim faith particularly when it comes to serving in Congress:

Yakima Herald website
Yakima Herald-Republic website/Canva
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I'm never going to agree with Ilhan Omar (D-MN) or Rashida Talib (D-MI), but if they are an American citizen (by birth or naturalized in the case of serving in Congress) and are 18 years old, they can run for a seat in the House or Senate.  There's also this thing called the First Amendment to the Constitution:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

You can't exclude someone from public office based on their religion.  If it is a question of placing your hand on a Bible to take the Oath of office, that is more of a symbolic gesture, it's not mandated.  President John Quincy Adams put his hand on a law book while President Franklin Pierce not only did that, but he didn't recite the Oath, he affirmed it.  The tradition of placing the hand on the Bible started with George Washington.  Stating you have to take the oath on a Christian Bible may also run afoul of the First Amendment.

All that aside, Sessler might have actually made it worse with another statement:

Yakima Herald Website/Canva
Yakima Herald-Republic Website/Canva
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I'm sure supporters (and detractors) of Sessler appreciate his honesty.  If he were to win in November, there is no question this will follow him to D.C.  Good chance that could throw a wrench into getting anything done in Congress, which ultimately means the 4th District suffers.

I reached out to the Chairman of the State Republican Party, State Rep. Jim Walsh (R-Aberdeen), State GOP Executive Director/Political Director Matt Frohlich, and Communications Director Liz Economou for a statement on Sessler's comments but have not heard from them as of this writing.

Every State's Voter Registration Deadline For the 2024 General Election

Gallery Credit: Rob Carroll

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